Picks Against The Spread: Week 4

Picks Against The Spread: Week 4

Isn’t it great to have football back? I’m still ecstatic about it, four weeks in. You never know what you have until you’re at risk of losing it *cough cough* TITANS! I feel good about my picks this week, LET’S GET TO IT!

TOP FIVE PICKS OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears (+2.5)

I love the Bears roster at every level. Mitch Trubisky is just not a starter in this league, Nick Foles is. He’s not an elite starter, but a competent one. I think the Bears defense keeps Phillip Rivers under pressure all day, and the Bears somehow become 4-0. Saying that is so surreal.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

This line is only a 3.5 because Kyler Murray struggled last week, and they’re expecting everyone to bail on him. Well they can’t get me, I’m still on this hype train. Let’s get real about the Panthers’ win last week, it wasn’t a good one. They were a hook and lateral away from getting beat by a rookie QB, who looked like a rookie, and a beat up defense. They’re not a good team.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans (-4)

The Texans haven’t looked good through three weeks, but they have had a brutal schedule opening up on the road against the Chiefs, the Ravens, and then on the road against Pittsburgh. The Vikings look awful, especially Kirk Cousins. What’s more surprising is the defense has also looked awful, this team’s best unit.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)

When you think about Tampa Bay, you think about that loaded offense. That defense is a vicious unit though, good lord. This unit is going to eat Herbert alive Sunday and cruise to an easy win.

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Bills are a top five team in this league, I don’t care what you think of them. I’ll keep this one short, I get: the better QB; the better defense; and the better coach. The Bills haven’t let me down yet, I’m going to keep riding this train.

BEST OF THE REST

Atlanta Falcons (+7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

You know when you’re drinking an slushie, and you get a brain freeze? You’re in serious pain, wanting someone to just put you out of your misery. Then it goes away, and you continue drinking the slushie? That’s me betting on the Falcons. The Falcons have a good roster, if they could only be good in the fourth quarter! Good news for this week, +7.5 points should cover their habit of collapsing in the fourth quarter, surely that won’t happen three weeks straight. *crosses fingers*

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Neither of these rosters are good, but I get the better QB. Very simple

Cleveland Browns vs. Dallas Cowboys (-5)

This was a tough one, as I don’t like betting on either one of these teams, since they both usually break my heart. Here’s my thinking though, Dallas has an explosive passing game and Cleveland’s secondary has been very lackluster this year. This is going to cause Cleveland, a team who is better running the ball, to fall behind and start throwing the ball. Baker Mayfield hasn’t showed me so far he can win a shootout, so for that reason, I’ll take Dallas.

Baltimore Ravens (-14) vs. Washington Football Team

There are a lot of points to swallow here. While I think Washington’s pass rush will cause problems, their offense lacks the talent to score against this stingy Ravens defense.

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (-13.5)

Once again, a lot of points to swallow. The Giants defense is one of, if not the worst defense in the league. McVay and company will slice and dice this defense, while the Aaron Donald wrecks that subpar offensive line.

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

My heart tells me to go with my team, but I learned long ago not to bet with your heart. The Patriots defense lost too many key pieces to have a chance at slowing down this Kansas City offense. New England could keep the ball on the ground and keep Pat Mahomes on the sideline, but I believe they fall behind and are forced into a shootout, a game they’re not built for.

WILD CARD PICK OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins (+6.5)

It’s crazy, but that’s why it’s called a wild card pick, I’m 3-0 on the year with these picks. The Seahawks are coming off two emotional wins against Dallas and New England. They now have to travel across the country, to humid Miami to face the Dolphins. Seattle’s biggest flaw is the lack of a pass rush, and Fitzmagic is great when he’s not under pressure. Seahawks win, Dolphins cover.

GAMES I’M NOT TOUCHING

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) vs Detroit Lions (+4.5)

The Saints offense is not dynamic with Michael Thomas not on the field, the defense isn’t great either. Detroit is a dangerous team on any given week. I expect the Saints to win, but you never know.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7) vs. San Francisco 49ers (+7)

Until Carson Wentz gets himself together, I can’t roll with the Eagles. I also can’t trust this beaten up 49ers team against decent competition. I don’t trust either of these teams enough to put my hard-earned money on.

Those are my picks I feel good about them. I’m 22-20 on the year, I hope to stay above .500. Thanks for reading and happy gambling!

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Featured photo courtesy of The Associated Press

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