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Monkey Knife Fighters: Best Prop Bets for Sunday’s Week 13 Slate

While we all recover from our tryptophan induced slumber, let’s take a look at the upcoming slate of games still remaining in week 13. While only a few matchups may seem eye-catching, I’ve uncovered some hidden value in a few of the other, “underwhelming” matchups as well.

How this article (and future MKF articles) will work is that I will highlight 3 different Sunday matchups, and illustrate one ‘bet’ from each, which is actually a set of two different prop bets that both need to be hit in order to win the bet. There are three different categories of these prop bets available, and I will highlight which category each bet falls under. The three different categories are titled “over/under”, “rapid fire”, and “fantasy points”. If this sounds a bit confusing, you can always go to monkeyknifefight.com and they lay out exactly how the site works, and how placing bets work as well. 

Let’s dive in.

(All spreads and totals as of Saturday at 2:30pm ET. Lines subject to change)

Matchup: NYJ (4-7) at CIN (0-11), 1:00 ET, CBS

Odds: NYJ -3

Total: 41.5

Bet category: Over/Under

Picture Source: Cincyjungle.com

To sum up this game in one word: yuck. Unless you’re a Jets or Bengals fan, this game may not seem particularly appealing, but there is one prop bet angle offering some hidden value. This total seems a bit low to me, as we have two bottom feeder defenses squaring off against offenses that can move the ball, albeit quite inconsistently, and there is no inclement weather expected either.

The Bet: Tyler Boyd over/under 70.5 receiving yards, and Jamison Crowder over/under 5.5 receptions.

The angle to take: Over on both totals.

Cincinnati gets Andy Dalton back at the helm, and while Dalton is the epitome of mediocrity at the quarterback position, the one thing he can do is churn out passing yards. With the sudden resurgence of Sam Darnold and the Jets offense coupled with how bad the Jets defense has been, Boyd should have no problem hitting this total in an implied negative game script. As for Crowder, he has been Darnold’s go to guy out of the slot, and while he’ll never have elite yardage totals, he has had at least six targets in three of the last four weeks, and I think he bounces back after an underwhelming game against Oakland last week.

Matchup: LAR (6-5) at ARZ (3-7-1), 4:05 ET, FOX

Odds: LA -2.5

Total: 48

Bet category: Over/Under

Picture Source: Dallasnews.com

While only the third highest total across the board, I believe this could be the highest scoring game of the week. Kyler Murray and Arizona’s offense has enjoyed a resurgence as of late, as Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid attack has gradually taken shape. Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense is the kind of defense that can make even Jared Goff and Todd Gurley look like their former 2018 selves. While the Rams have severely disappointed this year, I believe in Sean McVay and that his creative offensive mind can dial up a few plays to play to Goff’s strength, which is namely play-action passing. 

The Bet: Jared Goff Over/under 293.5 passing yards, and Kyler Murray Over/under 240.5 passing yards.

The angle to take: Over on both totals.

I was astonished that the line for Murray was set at a lowly 240.5 yards, as Murray has one of the safest passing volume floors in the league thanks to his offensive system. With Murray’s favorite target Christian Kirk establishing himself as not only a safety valve for Murray but also a deep threat on the perimeter as well, I’d take this line all the way up to 280 passing yards. Goff, while he has looked quite putrid at times this year, shouldn’t have any problems hitting this slightly lofty total either, especially if they continue to use Todd Gurley more in the screen game as they have the last couple weeks. Patrick Peterson has not been the dominant Patrick Peterson of old since coming back from his six-game suspension, furthering my (slightly tempered) confidence in Goff and the Rams passing attack. 

Matchup: SF (10-1) at BAL (9-2), 1:00 ET, FOX

Odds: BAL -5.5

Total: 46

Bet category: Over/under fantasy points

Picture Source: Nflmocks.com

Why this game wasn’t flexed to the Sunday night slot is anyone’s guess (We’re looking at you, New England). This is the clear marquee matchup of the day, as world beater Lamar Jackson goes up against maybe the one defense in the entire league that’s equipped to stop him in San Francisco. If you drafted Lamar Jackson in fantasy, congrats, as you’re either already in the playoffs or equipped to make the playoffs after this week. Jackson has simply broken the NFL, with his track star speed, dazzling moves, and much improved throwing arm. But make no mistake, Jackson is what he is today because John Harbaugh and the Ravens completely sold out to tailor their game plan specifically to him and what he does well, and it appears to be paying huge dividends. This is once again an example of the brilliance that Ozzie Newsome brought to the Ravens, and the only hope is that Jackson can stay upright and terrorize opposing defenses for years to come.

The Bet: Lamar Jackson Over/under 23.5 fantasy points, and Jimmy Garoppolo Over/under 17.5 fantasy points. 

(Fantasy points calculated according to standard PPR (points-per-reception) rules, with passing touchdowns being 4 points and rushing touchdowns being 6 points).

The angle to take: Over on Lamar Jackson total, under on Jimmy Garoppolo total.

While all the attention goes to Lamar Jackson, Baltimore’s defense has very quietly been a dominant unit this season after a bit of a slow start. If you look at Jimmy Garoppolo’s game log this year, you’ll notice that unless he’s playing Arizona, he tends to underwhelm in fantasy. To be fair, a lot of games he hasn’t been asked to do very much, with San Francisco’s dominant run game and stifling defense controlling most games they’ve played in. Jimmy G has 20 total touchdown passes on the year, and 8 of them have come against the Cardinals. I expect him to struggle in this game, having to fly across the country and play in an early window game against a raucous, ball hawking defense at home. As for Jackson, I’ve been wrong every single time I’ve bet against him. When a quarterback is a threat to rush for triple digits in any given game, Jackson may hit that 23.5 point mark on the ground alone. This seems like a no-brainer.

Honorable mentions: 

TEN (6-5) at IND (6-5): A.J. Brown Over/under 47.5 receiving yards, and Jonathan Williams Over/under 64.5 rushing yards.

The angle to take: Under on A.J. Brown total, Over on Jonathan Williams total

PHI (5-6) at MIA (2-9): Zach Ertz Over/under 5.5 receptions, and Devante Parker Over/under 68.5 receiving yards.

The angle to take: Over on both totals.

Picture Source: Lineups.com

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